Every week the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the Commitments of Traders report: how many futures contracts each group of large traders holds long and short. It is one of the few free, official sources that shows who is positioned how. Used correctly, it gives context; used as a timing signal, it disappoints.
When the data comes out
Positions are recorded as of Tuesday and published on Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET – a three-day lag. Holidays and government closures can delay the release. FuturesSpecs updates every contract page automatically after each release; the latest report covers positions as of Tue, Sep 22, 2026.
Three reports, three ways to group traders
| Report | Used for | Groups |
|---|---|---|
| Legacy | All markets | Commercials, Non-commercials, Nonreportables |
| Disaggregated | Physical commodities | Producers/Merchants, Swap Dealers, Managed Money, Other Reportables |
| Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) | Stock indexes, rates, currencies, crypto | Dealers, Asset Managers, Leveraged Funds, Other Reportables |
FuturesSpecs uses the Disaggregated report for commodities and the TFF report for financial futures, with the Legacy report as a second view. All figures are futures only – options positions are not mixed in.
Who is who
- Hedgers (Producers/Merchants, and in financial futures largely the Dealers) tend to act against the trend: they sell into strength and buy weakness because they hedge real business.
- Trend followers (Managed Money, Leveraged Funds) add to positions as prices move in their favor. Their positions are usually largest near the end of a move.
- Structural holders (Asset Managers, Swap Dealers with index money) are often permanently long or short. Their changes matter more than the sign of their position.
Net position
A net position on its own says little: the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) dealers are net short most of the time simply because of how they hedge. What matters is where today's figure sits compared with the group's own history.
The COT Index
The COT Index places the current net position within its range over a lookback window:
- 100 = the most net long the group has been in the window; 0 = the most net short.
- It is a stochastic calculation, not a percentile.
- FuturesSpecs shows two windows: 26 weeks (faster, more signals) and 3 years (slower, fewer false extremes). When both agree, the reading carries more weight.
- Readings above 80 or below 20 are usually treated as positioning extremes.
Direction matters: a very high index for hedgers has historically been read as potentially bullish, a very high index for trend-following funds as a crowded position. Neither is a signal on its own.
The Movement Index
The Movement Index measures how fast positioning changes: the COT Index today minus its value six weeks ago. A change of 40 points or more marks unusually fast repositioning. It helps in trending markets, where the COT Index can sit near one extreme for months.
WILLCO
Shown for the Legacy report, WILLCO applies the COT Index formula to the commercials' net position as a share of total open interest (26-week window). It adjusts for markets where open interest grows or shrinks a lot.
What COT data cannot do
- It does not time trades. Extremes can persist for months. Price confirms; positioning only sets the context.
- It is three days old when published and weekly, not daily.
- Structure varies by market. Compare each group only with its own history in the same market.
- Open-interest-based readings are distorted in stock index futures by quarterly expirations, so FuturesSpecs does not show them there.
Further reading
The COT Index and Movement Index were popularized by Stephen Briese (The Commitments of Traders Bible, 2008); WILLCO comes from Larry Williams (Trade Stocks & Commodities with the Insiders, 2005). The raw data is published by the CFTC. The COT overview shows the latest readings for every contract on one page.
Educational content only – not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.